It might not be time to pack away the wet weather gear just yet, with the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) indicating rain is here to stay.
Adjusting its warning from ‘La Niña WATCH’ to ‘La Niña ALERT’ earlier this week, the bureau says the likelihood of La Niña returning this spring has increased to triple the normal risk.
In fact, with trade winds strengthening and increasing the water moisture in the air, rainfall is expected to batter the east coast for much of spring.
It’s a weather pattern that has been impacting the country for months, and the BoM now warns rainfall may linger into summer.
La Niña events are a natural part of the global climate system. They occur when the Pacific Ocean and the atmosphere above it change from their neutral (‘normal’) state for several seasons.
Changes in sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean are currently occurring, with waters in the eastern Pacific cooler than normal and waters in the western tropical Pacific warmer than normal.
The Bureau’s three-month climate outlook is showing a 70% chance of above average rainfall for most of eastern Australia between September and November 2022.
With wet soils, high river levels and full dams, as well as the outlook for above average rainfall, eastern Australia remains at an elevated flood risk.
The last time Australia experienced successive La Niña events was between 2010 and 2012, when record rainfall drenched much of Australia and brought some of the biggest floods in living memory.
This followed years of severe drought in many parts of the country.
It was little more than a month ago that much of the Hunter was inaccessible by road as the rain wreaked havoc on the region.
The east coast’s current weather pattern is not however, ‘a third La Nina’ as some claim, the BOM advises.
