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Hunter economically better off under net-zero emissions, says report

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New data reveals 43,600 more jobs will be created if NSW transitions to a net-zero economy by 2050, with many regional areas experiencing the most benefit.

The modelling report, from the highly-respected Centre of Policy Studies at Victoria University, compares two scenarios: business-as-usual (BAU) and a transition to net-zero emissions by 2050.

Under both set-ups, the economy and jobs grow across all regions of NSW.

However, if Australia transitions to net-zero emissions, 25 of the 28 areas across the state will be economically better off by 2050, compared to the BAU approach.

Mid-North Coast, Riverina and Coffs Harbour are set to benefit most.

The Hunter Valley will also rise and see 33,000 new jobs over the next 29 years under the net-zero transition.

But, it’ll experience lower growth than if Australia continues a BAU approach.

The report shows committing to net-zero emissions will result in the national economy continuing to grow strongly at an average of 2.56% per annum, just 0.03 below a business-as-usual attitude.

“The cost of Australia transitioning to net-zero emissions by 2050 has plummeted by 80% in just eight years thanks to a rapid decline in the cost of renewable energy and electric vehicles, and the emergence of new green technologies,” author Professor Philip Adams said.

“The modelling takes a conservative approach and is based on today’s technology and industries – and requires government policy action.

“Importantly, it does not include the possible benefits of slowing climate change, such as savings from less frequent extreme weather events and fires.”

Professor Adams said transitioning to net-zero represented value for money for Australia.

“Cutting greenhouse gas emissions is like buying an insurance policy,” he explained.

“We incur a small decline in the growth in GDP in order to limit the potential impact of catastrophic climate change.”

Some sectors will experience significant economic and jobs growth as a result of net-zero such as the forestry and renewable energy generation sectors.

Overall agriculture, fishing and forestry, manufacturing and utilities will create more roles under a net-zero economy.

However, some sub-sectors of those industries such as coal and gas generation will be worse off.

The modelling uses a price on carbon to incentivise transition to net-zero emissions.

“It will be very difficult for Australia to achieve net-zero without some price on carbon, whether that is explicitly through a carbon tax, or implicitly through costs imposed by regulation, subsidies for new technology or the removal of existing fossil fuel subsidies,” Professor Adams said.

“But, the task is getting much easier.

“Eight years ago, our modelling showed the effective price on carbon needed to be $285 a tonne to achieve net-zero – now it is at $151 per tonne.”

Professor Adams said some regions needed government support and transition strategies.

“We know which industries and regions will see lower growth and with proper planning, resourcing and a long lead time, governments can invest in these regions to attract renewable energy industries, new green industries and invest in retraining and upskilling the workforce,” he added.

If the pledges made at the COPS26 conference are delivered, the world will warm by an average 1.9 degrees by the end of the century.

The Australian Government has said it will reach net zero emissions by 2050, but how it plans to get there is unclear at this stage.

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